Trading Tools

Risk of Ruin Calculator

Estimate the odds that a strategy wipes out a set share of the account, given its win rate, risk-reward ratio and the risk taken per trade.

Win rate

Risk : Reward (reward side)

1 :

Risk per trade

Trades in the sequence

trades

Counted as "ruin" when the account falls by

Result

Risk of ruin

0.0%

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Median ending balance

1.00×

Calculated exactly, not simulated: every possible sequence of wins and losses is weighted by its probability, and any sequence that ever falls by the stated amount counts as ruined. The same inputs always give the same answer. Risk is taken as a share of the current balance, so it compounds.

How many losses in a row would end the account?

Uses the same inputs as above. With compounding, each loss costs a share of the balance at that moment; with fixed risk, each loss costs the same share of the starting balance.

Losses in a row to reach ruin (compounding)

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Losses in a row to reach ruin (fixed risk)

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Longest losing streak to expect

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Losing streak of at least	Chance it happens in the sequence	Account after that streak (compounding)	Account after that streak (fixed risk)

Calculated exactly with no random numbers. It assumes every trade is independent with the same win rate; real results tend to cluster more than that, so treat the streaks as a floor rather than a ceiling.