This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. I am simply sharing my own reading of the market and what I plan to do on my own account.

Before the US session gets moving, there is one level I cannot ignore, and it is the same one that kept me glued to the screen after Monday’s slide.

Opening

Gold is trading around $4,290–$4,310 this morning, broadly flat to slightly lower on the day, as it tries to build on a shallow recovery from Monday’s slide to a five-to-six-week low near $4,250–$4,284. That was a rough session for gold bulls, and today feels much more like a pause than a continuation in either direction. Price is essentially parked right on top of the $4,300 psychological level, which tells me the market genuinely does not know where it wants to go until tomorrow.

Fundamental Landscape

This week is not about gold on its own terms – it is about the Fed. The FOMC meets over two days, with the decision due tomorrow, Wednesday 16 September, followed by the Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets are pricing somewhere in the high-80s to low-90s percentage-wise for a 25 basis point hike, which would take the target range up from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% and would mark the Fed’s first hike since 2023. That in itself is a remarkable reversal from where cutting expectations stood not long ago.

What is driving this is a mix of hot inflation prints – August core CPI ticked up to 0.3% month-on-month even as the annual core rate cooled to 2.4%, its lowest since March 2021 – and an energy shock that is keeping headline pressure alive. The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed up towards, and in places through, the 5% mark for the first time since 2023, and the Dollar Index is holding firm around 99.5–99.6. Higher real yields plus a stronger dollar is about as classic a headwind for a non-yielding asset like gold as it gets, and that combination is doing most of the work in capping rallies right now.

The twist this time round is that this is not really a demand-driven hike. It is a response to an energy-supply shock coming out of the Middle East, which is a slightly unusual set-up for gold – geopolitical risk would normally be a tailwind, but here it is arguably forcing the Fed’s hand and, in the process, working against gold through the dollar and yields channel instead.

Asia & Europe Sessions

Overnight and into the London open, gold has stuck to a tight range roughly between $4,280 and $4,330, with volatility noticeably compressed compared with Monday. I read this as classic pre-FOMC positioning – nobody wants to commit to a big directional bet with the decision barely 24 hours away. There has been some intraday chop tied to fresh headlines out of the Middle East, but nothing that has broken the range decisively in either direction.

Technical Analysis

Zooming out, the bigger picture still looks corrective to me. Gold is trading well below its longer-term moving averages, with the 50 and 100-day clusters sitting somewhere in the $4,300s–$4,350 area and acting as overhead resistance, while the 200-day sits much further up near $4,530–$4,540. That is a lot of technical weight stacked above current price. There is also a potential head-and-shoulders structure forming on the daily chart, with the neckline sitting right in the $4,280–$4,300 zone I keep coming back to – if that gives way with real volume, I think the market makes it obvious very quickly.

Zooming into the intraday picture, momentum is far less one-sided. RSI is sitting in neutral territory in the low-to-mid 40s, MACD is flat to slightly negative near the zero line, and I am seeing some Hammer and Inverted Hammer candles on the shorter timeframes that hint at buyers defending this zone rather than folding. To me, that is a market genuinely undecided rather than one screaming for a breakdown.

Key Levels

  • Resistance 1: $4,315–$4,330 – the first cap, sitting just above today’s range
  • Resistance 2: $4,350–$4,400 – where the short and medium-term moving averages cluster
  • Resistance 3: $4,440–$4,510 – deeper resistance if the FOMC delivers a genuine dovish surprise
  • Resistance 4: $4,530–$4,650 – the 200-day SMA and the August highs, a long way off from here
  • Support 1: $4,280–$4,300 – my critical zone, the neckline of the pattern I am watching most closely
  • Support 2: $4,250–$4,270 – this week’s low and roughly where the shorter-term moving average sits
  • Support 3: $4,200–$4,235 – next stop if $4,250 fails to hold
  • Support 4: $4,157–$4,160 – deeper structural support if the sell-off truly accelerates

My Gold Outlook Today

My base case is that today stays contained – a $4,280 to $4,330 range with limited appetite for a real breakout before tomorrow’s decision. The bullish case strengthens if Empire State Manufacturing comes in soft, or if the Middle East headline flow deteriorates further and reintroduces a proper safe-haven bid. In that scenario I would expect a probe back towards $4,330–$4,350 rather than anything more dramatic.

My alternative scenario is a slow grind lower into the FOMC as yields and the dollar stay firm on hike expectations, with $4,280 tested again but probably not broken until the decision itself is out. My invalidation point for the near-term bullish idea is a sustained hourly close below $4,280 – that is where I would stop looking for dip-buying opportunities and start respecting the downside path towards $4,250 and then $4,200.

What I’m Watching Today

  • 08:30 ET – Empire State Manufacturing Index: consensus is soft versus last month’s 20.6 reading, and a miss could give gold a small lift into the New York session
  • Middle East headline flow: any fresh escalation around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi infrastructure, or the Red Sea shipping routes could move price faster than any scheduled data point
  • DXY and 10-year yields: I am watching whether the dollar holds its recent five-times-rejected resistance near 99.65–99.75, and whether the 10-year pushes decisively through 5%
  • Positioning into tomorrow: I expect thinner liquidity and choppier price action as the market squares up ahead of the FOMC decision, SEP, and Warsh’s press conference