This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset.

The first thing I noticed when I opened MT5 this morning was how calm the chart looks compared to Wednesday’s chaos. Gold spent most of yesterday getting hammered, and now it’s sitting quietly just above $4,117, almost as if nothing happened. That kind of calm after a storm always makes me want to look a bit closer before I trust it.

Opening

Spot XAU/USD is trading around $4,121, up roughly a quarter of a percent on the day after opening near $4,110.91. Today’s range so far has been $4,103 to $4,143, which tells me buyers and sellers are still fighting it out rather than one side having taken clear control. The bigger story, though, is where we came from: gold touched a nine-week low in the $4,066–$4,103 zone on Wednesday before this bounce took hold. I’m treating this as a relief move until it proves otherwise.

Fundamental Landscape

The dollar is the name of the game right now. It’s eased slightly to around 102.0–102.3 on the index, pulling back from an eighteen-month high reached earlier this week, and that pullback is really the main reason gold has found its footing. US Treasury yields remain the elephant in the room for me — the 10-year is sitting near 5.3%, a level last seen back in 2002, and the 30-year isn’t far behind at roughly 5.6–5.7%. Real yields have climbed to their highest since 2008, which is a genuinely punishing backdrop for an asset that pays no interest.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes didn’t help the bullish case either. The Fed confirmed it raised rates by 25 basis points in September, unanimously, and most participants still see another hike as likely before year-end. Inflation risk was flagged as skewed to the upside, with energy prices, geopolitics and the AI investment boom all named as contributors. The next meeting on 27–28 October is widely expected to be a pause, but December is a different story — markets are pricing a meaningful chance of one more hike then, and that’s the kind of “skip, then hike” path that keeps gold on a leash.

Asia & Europe Sessions

Through the Asian session, gold extended its bounce off Wednesday’s floor as the dollar eased and some profit-taking kicked in on those USD longs. Headlines pointing to renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz were doing the rounds overnight too, and I think that’s part of what’s keeping a bid under gold even as yields stay elevated — it’s a two-sided risk, because higher oil also feeds the inflation story that keeps the Fed hawkish. As European traders came in, price action has stayed fairly contained, with the market clearly waiting on the data and speakers later today rather than committing to a direction.

Technical Analysis

Zooming out, the longer-term picture is still corrective. Gold remains capped below its 100- and 200-period daily moving averages, both of which sit a little above current price, and the daily technical summary on my feeds is leaning firmly toward sell. That said, the 14-day RSI is sitting around 51 — flat, neutral, not oversold — which tells me this isn’t a market screaming “buy the bounce” just yet either.

On the lower timeframes it’s a different mood. The M30 and H1 charts on my own terminal show price consolidating in a tight band just above $4,117 after that sharp spike down and recovery mid-week, with momentum indicators more mixed than outright bearish. Essentially: the daily trend still points down, but the intraday structure is behaving like a market catching its breath rather than one preparing to break lower immediately.

Key Levels

  • Pivot (today): $4,117.72 — this is almost exactly where my MT5 chart has price sitting right now, so I’m treating it as the line in the sand for the session.
  • Resistance 1: $4,120–$4,125 — the first hurdle on any push higher, consistent with the pivot cluster.
  • Resistance 2: $4,143 — today’s high and the next real test.
  • Resistance 3: $4,180–$4,200 — the broader supply zone that’s capped multiple rebound attempts this week.
  • Support 1: $4,110–$4,113 — the immediate floor beneath the pivot.
  • Support 2: $4,100 — psychological and technical support that’s held repeatedly.
  • Support 3: $4,066 — Wednesday’s nine-week low, and the level that matters most if this bounce fails.

My Gold Outlook Today

My base case is a continuation of range-bound trade, broadly $4,100 to $4,150, while the market digests the minutes and waits on the US data. I don’t see a strong enough catalyst yet to force a clean break either way before this afternoon.

If jobless claims come in soft, or Waller leans dovish, or we get a fresh escalation headline out of the Middle East, I’d expect gold to push through $4,150 and test the $4,180–$4,200 zone. On the other hand, a firmer claims print or a hawkish tone from the Fed speakers today, combined with yields pushing back toward 5.35%, would in my view send gold straight back to retest $4,100 and, if that gives way, the $4,066 low from Wednesday. My invalidation for the bullish case is a clean loss of $4,100; for the bearish case, it’s a reclaim and hold above $4,150.

What I’m Watching Today

  • 09:30 BST (08:30 GMT): Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Istanbul Economic Forum — first real read on Fed thinking since the minutes.
  • 13:30 BST (12:30 GMT): US Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 200K versus a previous 197K — the main scheduled catalyst of the day.
  • 18:00 BST (17:00 GMT): US 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction — long-end demand here matters given how much yields are driving gold right now.
  • Ongoing: any fresh headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz or the wider Middle East, which could shift the safe-haven side of the equation quickly.