This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and nothing here should be read as a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. I am simply sharing my own reading of the market and what I plan to do on my own account.

This morning’s gold chart is giving me a very different picture than the one I closed on Friday, and it comes down to two words: Fed week. XAU/USD has slipped back under $4320, the dollar is firming up, and the whole market feels like it’s holding its breath for Wednesday.

Opening

Gold is trading around $4,312–$4,313 as I write this, down roughly -0.82% to -0.84% on the day. Today’s range so far sits between $4,308.23 and $4,355.26, with the previous close and today’s open both around $4,348.93. That’s a fairly wide intraday swing for a Monday, and to me it shows the market is already jittery before the main event.

Zooming out, gold is still up close to 18–19% over the past year, and the 52-week range of $3,626.60 to $5,595.46 is a reminder of just how far this move has come since January’s all-time high near $5,600. My reading is that this pullback is a correction inside a bigger uptrend, not a trend reversal — at least not yet.

Fundamental Landscape

The story dominating my screen today is the Fed. The FOMC meets on 15–16 September, with the decision due Wednesday, and rate hike expectations have climbed sharply after hotter-than-expected August CPI and PPI prints. Estimates I’m seeing this morning vary quite a bit depending on the source — some trackers put the probability of a 25bp hike near 60%, others closer to the mid-80s — but the direction of travel is the same: the market has gone from expecting cuts to pricing in a hike, which is a genuinely unusual setup.

The US Dollar Index (DXY futures) is at 99.303, up 0.47% on the day, with a range of 98.823–99.320. A firmer dollar is a direct headwind for gold, and I’m watching 99.50 and 100.00 as the next levels that matter for DXY.

Treasury yields are also elevated, with the 10-year sitting close to the 5% mark. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold, and that’s the main mechanical reason for today’s weakness.

On the geopolitical side, tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices are still providing some underlying safe-haven demand for gold. To me, that’s the cushion stopping this from turning into a sharper sell-off — but right now the “higher rates” channel is clearly winning out over the “safe-haven” channel.

One thing worth flagging: today’s economic calendar is unusually quiet, with no major scheduled releases. I read that as the market simply clearing the runway for Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Asia & Europe Sessions

Gold slipped toward the $4,300 handle during the Asian session as the hotter inflation data lifted hike bets further. Asian currencies came under pressure broadly as the dollar gained, and the yen stayed elevated near multi-month highs. Regional equities were mixed — Japan’s Nikkei closed down around 0.58%, while Australian stocks edged higher.

Into the European open, I noticed gold clinging to support in the $4,300–$4,355 confluence zone rather than breaking down outright. UK equities (FTSE 100) actually gained ground, helped by oil prices pushing higher on Middle East supply concerns — a reminder that the “risk-on/risk-off” picture isn’t as clean as it sometimes looks.

Technical Analysis

On the higher timeframes, the picture is still constructive. The Monthly and Weekly charts show a strong multi-year uptrend, with the recent pullback looking, so far, like a correction from the late-January peak near $5,600 rather than a trend change. The Weekly technical summary reads Neutral, and Monthly still reads Buy.

Intraday, it’s a different story. The 30-minute technical summary is a clear Strong Sell, and the Daily summary agrees — Strong Sell too. Every moving average from MA5 through MA200 is flashing sell, and momentum indicators back that up: RSI(14) is at 35.9, MACD(12,26) is at -8.87, both sell-biased without being technically oversold. Price is also trading well below the 200-day moving average, which sits up near $4,530–$4,550 depending on the feed.

On the MT5 charts I’m looking at this morning, the H4 and Daily views both show a clean sequence of lower highs since the late-August peak above $4,600, and price is now testing the lower part of that range. Some analysts are also flagging a possible Head-and-Shoulders structure, with price currently probing the neckline area. I’m not fully committing to that pattern yet, but I’m respecting the level it points to.

Key Levels

  • Immediate resistance: $4,370 – $4,400
  • Pivot point (Classic): $4,313.67
  • R1 / R2 / R3: $4,319.11 / $4,327.35 / $4,332.79
  • Critical support / neckline zone: $4,280 – $4,320
  • S1 / S2 / S3: $4,305.43 / $4,299.99 / $4,291.75
  • Deeper downside target if support fails: $4,220, then $4,160
  • Macro resistance / 200-day zone: $4,480 – $4,530

My Gold Outlook Today

Main scenario: I’m leaning toward continued pressure into the FOMC decision. If gold fails to reclaim $4,370 and instead breaks cleanly below $4,300, I’d expect a slide toward $4,220 and potentially $4,160, especially if the Fed delivers a hike with a hawkish tone from Kevin Warsh.

Alternative scenario: If buyers defend the $4,280 zone and gold pushes back above $4,425, I’d treat that as a short-squeeze signal, with scope to run toward $4,475–$4,530.

Invalidation point for my main scenario: a daily close back above $4,400 would tell me the sellers have lost control, and I’d shift my bias toward the alternative scenario instead.

What I’m Watching Today

  • Any fresh headlines out of the Middle East that could move oil and, in turn, inflation expectations.
  • How DXY behaves around the 99.50 level — a clean break higher would reinforce dollar strength.
  • Positioning into Wednesday’s FOMC decision (16 September, 2pm ET) and the accompanying dot plot.
  • Whether gold can hold the $4,300–$4,320 zone into the London close, since a daily close below it would open the door to the $4,220 target.