This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading gold carries risk, and you should always do your own research before making any decisions.

The first thing I noticed when I opened MT5 this morning was that gold had already given back its early bounce. Price opened the day near $4,343, pushed briefly higher, and has since been ground back down toward $4,315 as the dollar refuses to loosen its grip. Nothing dramatic, nothing that breaks the recent range decisively, but it is the kind of session where every small dollar and yield move seems to matter more than usual.

Opening

XAU/USD is trading around $4,318 as I write this, down roughly 0.6% on the day after opening at $4,343.73. The session low so far sits at $4,315.47, with the overnight high at $4,375.94, so I am looking at a fairly wide swing for a European morning. The move lower has been steady rather than sharp, which to me suggests position adjustment ahead of the US calendar rather than a single headline-driven shock.

The Dollar Index is holding just above 100.17, little changed on the day but sitting close to an eight-week high after last week’s gains. That firmness is the simplest explanation for gold’s inability to hold onto its early strength.

Fundamental Landscape

The story dominating this market has not changed since last week: the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September, the first hike in three years. The updated dot plot pencils in at least one further move before year-end, and I am seeing market pricing that puts the odds of another hike at the 28 October meeting well above even money. That is a genuinely hawkish backdrop for a non-yielding asset like gold, and it is the main reason I think rallies are struggling to hold.

US Treasury yields remain elevated. The 10-year sits close to 4.95%–4.97%, having eased back from levels near 5% seen around the FOMC decision, while the 2-year is holding near 4.75%–4.76%. The curve is flattish rather than steepening sharply either way, which to me means yields are a headwind for gold without being the dominant story today.

Oil is the interesting wrinkle. Crude has fallen for several consecutive sessions, and headlines suggesting President Trump has signalled openness to talks with Iran have helped that slide along. A softer oil price takes some heat out of the inflation narrative, which in my reading is the one factor cushioning gold’s decline this morning rather than reversing it. There is also a German political setback weighing on the euro and, by extension, lending the dollar a touch of extra support.

Asia & Europe Sessions

Asian trade was relatively contained, with technology-led strength in regional equities and a broadly steady dollar. The overnight action in gold saw an attempt higher toward the $4,375–$4,376 area before sellers took control. As European desks came in, that pressure continued, and the pair worked its way down through the $4,343 opening level and into the low $4,320s before testing $4,315.

I do not see anything in the European calendar today that is likely to be a major mover on its own. The session so far reads as a continuation of the dollar-driven grind lower that started overnight, with light volumes doing little to slow it down.

Technical Analysis

Stepping back to the bigger picture on the weekly and monthly charts, gold remains in a long-term uptrend that is still digesting the sharp correction from January’s all-time high near $5,602. On the daily chart, price has been chopping inside a broad $4,250–$4,450 band for the best part of two weeks, and nothing about today’s move changes that structure.

Where it gets more interesting is on the intraday timeframes. The H4 chart shows gold recovering from the post-Fed dip near $4,250–$4,260, rallying into the $4,390–$4,410 supply zone, getting rejected there, and now sliding back through the $4,343 flip zone that had been acting as support. On the M30 and H1 charts, that flip zone has now flipped again into resistance, and price is testing the lower boundary of its recent range.

My own indicator readings back this up. The 30-minute RSI sits near 33, the daily RSI is around 35, and MACD is negative on both timeframes. Price is trading below every short and medium-term moving average I track, from the 5-period through to the 200-period, which is about as clean a bearish alignment as this market has shown in the past couple of weeks. I would not call this oversold yet, but it is getting closer.

Key Levels

  • Resistance 1: $4,343 – today’s opening level and prior close, now acting as the first pivot resistance overhead.
  • Resistance 2: $4,355–$4,365 – the broader flip zone and near-term supply.
  • Resistance 3: $4,390–$4,410 – the key supply zone that has already rejected price once this week.
  • Major Resistance: $4,440–$4,470 – untested overhead barrier that would need a genuine shift in the fundamental picture to reach.
  • Support 1: $4,315–$4,318 – today’s session low and my closest support to watch.
  • Support 2: $4,300–$4,305 – psychological level with solid structural backing.
  • Support 3: $4,260–$4,285 – the deeper demand zone that fuelled the last rally.
  • Major Support: $4,230–$4,260 – the post-Fed-hike low; a break here would concern me for the medium-term bullish case.

My Gold Outlook Today

My main scenario for the rest of the session is continued softness while gold trades below $4,343. If Williams and Jefferson lean into the hawkish tone I have heard from other Fed officials over the past week, I would expect a push toward $4,300, with $4,260–$4,285 as the next magnet for stops beneath the recent range.

My alternative scenario is a short-covering bounce. If either speaker sounds more balanced than expected, or if oil’s decline continues to ease inflation fears, I think gold could reclaim $4,343 and work back toward the $4,365–$4,390 area fairly quickly, given how compressed positioning looks on the shorter timeframes.

The point that would make me rethink the bearish lean entirely is a sustained daily close back above $4,400 — that would put the recent lower-high structure in serious doubt. On the downside, a clean break and hold below $4,260 is what I would need to see before treating this as more than a range-bound pullback.

What I’m Watching Today

  • 10:05 ET / 16:05 CEST – New York Fed President John Williams speaks. Likely the single most important event of the session for rate-hike odds.
  • 10:20 ET / 16:20 CEST – Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks. A second read on the Fed’s internal tone within minutes of Williams.
  • 13:00 ET / 19:00 CEST – Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks, alongside the US 2-year Treasury note auction. Auction demand will feed straight into front-end yields.
  • 16:30 ET / 22:30 CEST – API weekly crude oil stock data. With oil’s recent slide doing a lot of the inflation-easing work, this print matters more than usual.