This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, and I am not a licensed financial advisor. Everything I share here reflects my own reading of the market and what I plan to do on my own account.

Friday’s breakout attempt ran out of steam, and this morning’s chart shows me exactly where. Gold pressed into the same shelf under $4,400 that I was watching last week, failed to hold it, and has spent the start of the new week handing part of that rebound back.

Opening

Spot XAU/USD is trading around $4,352–$4,355, down roughly 0.5–0.6% on the session after Friday’s close near $4,378. So far today the range has run from about $4,349 to $4,383, which means price has already tested the lower half of that band before London even gets going.

The bigger picture is still a recovery story. Gold is up around 1.3% on the week just gone, its first weekly gain in four, after bouncing hard from the $4,235–$4,245 flush that followed the Fed decision. The question this morning is whether that bounce is simply pausing or whether the $4,373 line I flagged on Friday has done its job as a ceiling.

Fundamental Landscape

The Fed is still the story. Last Wednesday it raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously, and the updated projections put the median policy rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026. Sixteen of eighteen officials expect at least one more hike this year, and the market is pricing a little over a 50% chance of another move in October. My reading is that the hike itself is no longer the surprise. The path afterwards is what keeps gold under pressure.

Yields are where that pressure shows up. The 10-year is sitting around 5.00% and the 2-year near 4.75%, both close to multi-year highs. The dollar index is holding just above 100 and is a touch firmer on the day, so I do not have the usual relief valve of a falling dollar. Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high and has spread beyond the initial energy shock, which is not the kind of comment that encourages yield sellers.

Today itself is quiet for hard data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is due, and there are short-dated bill auctions later. The heavier lifting comes later in the week with a run of Fed speakers, Wednesday’s flash PMIs and Thursday’s Trump–Xi meeting in Washington. With no top-tier US data today, I expect yields and the dollar to do most of the talking.

Asia & Europe Sessions

Asia was calm and slightly constructive early on. Gold pushed up towards $4,380 during the first part of the session, helped by a broadly positive tone in Asian equities as oil slipped. The yen steadied on intervention talk and the yuan climbed to a multi-year high ahead of the Trump–Xi summit, while the dollar edged higher.

That early strength did not last. Gold faded steadily through the Asian close and into the European pre-open, sliding back to the low $4,350s and pressing against today’s low. To me, that fade says buyers were not willing to defend the upper part of Friday’s range, and it is why I am cautious about calling this a fresh leg higher. I expect London to trade around $4,340–$4,375 unless a Fed comment or headline forces the issue.

Technical Analysis

Starting with the long view, the monthly and weekly charts still show a corrective pullback inside a longer uptrend that peaked above $5,500 in January. The weekly candle sits right in the $4,350–$4,400 transition area, which is consistent with a market that is consolidating rather than breaking down. The daily chart is less friendly, with the dominant downtrend from the spring highs still intact, and that is the main reason I am not getting carried away by any single bounce.

On H4, the base from the $4,245 low is still visible, but Friday’s push stalled just under $4,400 and the market has been rolling over since. On M30 and H1 the picture is clearer: a run of lower highs since Friday’s peak, with price now back on top of my horizontal line and slipping under the short-term averages. The 5, 10, 20 and 50-period averages on the 30-minute chart sit between roughly $4,356 and $4,373, all above spot, and the 30-minute and hourly technical readings have flipped to Strong Sell. The 5-hour and daily readings are neutral, the weekly is still constructive and the monthly is firmly positive.

There is one caveat worth respecting. Short-term oscillators are already stretched to the downside, with Stochastic RSI and Williams %R both in oversold territory and RSI around 39. My reading is that a reflex bounce can arrive at any moment, and if it does, I want to see where it stalls. A bounce that dies under $4,374 would confirm the pressure, while one that carries through would suggest Friday’s rally was only pausing.

Key Levels

  • Resistance 3 – $4,400–$4,405: Friday’s high area and the round number. It is my first real target if buyers regain control.
  • Resistance 2 – $4,380–$4,388: Today’s high and the last clear supply pocket before $4,400.
  • Resistance 1 – $4,366–$4,374: Where the 30-minute averages, the upper pivot resistance and Friday’s decision line cluster. I treat this as the level that decides whether any bounce has legs.
  • Support 1 – $4,346–$4,350: Today’s low and the first pivot support. This is the line I care about most this morning.
  • Support 2 – $4,320–$4,335: The base of the recent range, including the long 30-minute average. A break here would tell me the correction is resuming.
  • Support 3 – $4,300 and $4,235–$4,245: $4,300 is my line in the sand for the wider bounce, and the post-Fed flush low sits just below it.

My Gold Outlook Today

My main scenario is a controlled pullback. With price back under the $4,366–$4,374 cluster and beneath the short-term averages, I expect rallies to stay capped there and the market to rotate towards $4,335–$4,320, especially if the 10-year holds near 5% and the dollar stays firm. Because the oscillators are oversold, I would not be surprised by a bounce first, so I am not assuming a straight-line move.

My alternative scenario is a defence of support. If gold holds $4,346–$4,350, sweeps a few stops and then reclaims $4,374 on a sustained M30 or H1 close, the door opens towards $4,388 and then $4,400+. That would most likely need a softer dollar, a dip in yields or a friendlier tone from the Fed speakers.

For the short-term bearish lean, my invalidation is a sustained close above $4,388. For the bigger recovery picture, I am watching a daily close below $4,300. That would tell me the bounce was simply a rally inside the larger downtrend, and I would shift my focus back to a retest of the $4,235–$4,245 low.

What I’m Watching Today

  • Price action at $4,346–$4,350: M30 and H1 closes here matter more to me than any single headline.
  • Goolsbee (10:30 GMT) and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (12:30 GMT): After a hike, any hint on the pace of further tightening can move yields quickly.
  • US 3-month and 6-month bill auctions (15:30 GMT) and Treasury yields: I want to see whether the 10-year pushes back above 5.00% or eases.
  • DXY around 100 and Trump–Xi headlines: The dollar’s reaction ahead of Thursday’s meeting could set the tone for the whole week.